Unbelievably, the fatal blow to American farmers came from Trump’s “best friend” – Argentine President Milei.
In 2025, the United States is experiencing a historic soybean harvest, but the heartland of the Midwest grain storage is filled with worry: Iowa’s storage facilities are only 12% empty, soybeans pile up like mountains in Nebraska’s farms, yet farmers have no strength even to smile. China, the world’s largest soybean buyer, has had a “zero record” in soybean imports from the U.S. since May. USDA data shows that soybean stocks across the U.S. have surged to 22 million tons, and if buyers are not found soon, this grain may really rot in the warehouses.
Just as American farmers are at their wit’s end, Argentina suddenly delivers another blow: overnight on September 22, it canceled 26% of the export pre-charge tax on soybeans, effectively giving an “80% discount” to international buyers and snatching the last market share of U.S. soybeans. Argentina, which just received $20 billion in aid from the U.S., why did it turn around and “stab” its ally in the back? With U.S. soybeans piling up like mountains, why did China become the biggest winner?
This farce directly enraged U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooks. He sent a text message to Treasury Secretary Besant, calling her a “fool” – this message was even leaked and exposed by an Associated Press reporter, turning into an international laughingstock.
This story begins 10 days ago. Argentine President Milei suffered a crushing defeat in the Buenos Aires local elections due to his sister’s corruption scandal, directly triggering a financial storm: the US dollar to peso exchange rate surged past 1:1500, and the central bank sold $1.1 billion in reserves over three days but still couldn’t reverse the trend, with foreign exchange reserves nearing depletion. Desperate, Milei quickly turned to his “old friend” Trump for help.
At a critical moment, Trump surprisingly showed “generosity”: he ordered Treasury Secretary Yellen to publicly urge “full efforts to stabilize the Argentine exchange rate” and directly allocated $20 billion in aid. But after Milei received the money, he immediately announced the cancellation of soybean export taxes, using US aid funds to provide “subsidies” to global buyers, launching a discount promotion for soybeans.
China, as the world’s largest soybean buyer, naturally didn’t miss this opportunity. Over the two days of September 23rd and 24th, it successively secured 1.3 million tons of Argentine soybean orders —— this is equivalent to 35% of Argentina’s full-year export volume to China in 2024, directly bringing $700 million in foreign exchange revenue to Argentina, accounting for 10% of its October foreign exchange target. The news caused Chicago soybean futures to plummet 1.2% in a single day, setting a two-week record for the largest decline.
Milei did this out of desperation: the Argentine peso had depreciated to the brink of collapse, and if he couldn’t quickly recoup US dollars, the financial storm couldn’t be contained. But this tactic of “drinking poison to quench thirst” has completely cut off the path for American farmers.
Actually, the move by Milai is just the last straw that broke the camel’s back. Even without this farce, the days of American soybeans wouldn’t have been any better — China accounts for 60% of the global soybean trade, and if China doesn’t buy, no one can consume the U.S. stockpile. What’s even more critical is that soybeans are extremely difficult to store; after losing moisture, they can only be used as fertilizer, and the global annual waste of soybeans exceeds ten million tons. The American Soybean Association predicts that if China doesn’t place an order by November, farmers will suffer direct losses of $6 billion.
The chain reaction has already become apparent: the unsold soybeans have not only hurt farmers but also dragged down fertilizer companies, machinery manufacturers, and transportation companies. The transportation industry alone will lose 20,000 jobs, affecting the livelihoods of 20,000 American families.
But the one who is most troubled isn’t the farmers; it’s Trump. He has finally realized that soybeans are even a more powerful “weapon” than rare earths. The latest poll shows that 80% of farmers in the Midwest believe that Trump’s trade war has dragged them into the abyss — these agricultural states are the Republicans’ “swing states,” which are the bedrock of Trump’s political base.
During Biden’s administration, he could turn a blind eye to the soybean crisis, after all, even the most disgruntled red-state voters wouldn’t vote for the Democrats. But Trump can’t, with the midterm elections looming, if he can’t resolve the soybean sales issue, farmers will inevitably turn against him in the heat of battle. At the very least, he will lose control of Congress; at the worst, he may face impeachment.
The frantic Trump has been “begging” since September: repeatedly calling on China to buy soybeans on social media, and even promising that “soybeans would be the top agenda” during the APEC summit meeting with China in late October; he even pledged to provide $10 billion in subsidies to farmers if China didn’t buy. But no matter how big the pie is painted, it cannot solve the urgent problem at hand — the landed cost of U.S. soybeans is $776 per ton, more than double that of Brazilian soybeans, not to mention zero-tariff Argentine soybeans.
In contrast, China has long been in a strong position: Brazilian soybeans account for 74.6% of China’s imports and are continuously increasing in production, while Argentina has sent over low-price orders, and new suppliers like Uruguay and Paraguay are also gradually stepping in. If Trump wants China to buy U.S. soybeans, just talking sweetly won’t cut it; he needs to show genuine sincerity.
The China-U.S. competition in 2025 is quite dramatic: Trump was in a frenzy in the first half of the year due to rare earths, and was “taught a lesson” by soybeans in the second half. This soybean trade war has finally made him realize that in today’s global supply chain restructuring, whoever holds the initiative in demand is the real winner.
