The annual soybean harvest season is coming as scheduled, but American soybean farmers are not interested at all. The trade conflict that the Trump administration insists on provoking is burdening them with immeasurable costs.
Reuters quoted two sources on August 29 as saying that Chinese soybean importers plan to increase purchases from Argentina and Uruguay in the coming year to fill the gap in U.S. soybean supply due to the ongoing Sino-US trade conflict. The report pointed out that the increase in soybean supply between Latin America and Latin America will form a superposition effect with China’s large imports from Brazil, which is undoubtedly another heavy blow to U.S. soybean exporters.
The two sources are a Singapore-based trader of an international company that exports soybeans to China, and a long-term soybean trade for China. They revealed that in the 2025/26 marketing year ending in August next year, Chinese processors may purchase 10 million tons of soybeans from the two South American countries, a record scale. Meanwhile, China has ordered 2.43 million tons of Argentine and Uruguayan soybeans, which are scheduled to be shipped between September this year and May next year.
According to data from the General Administration of Customs of China, China imported a total of 5 million tons of soybeans from Argentina and Uruguay from September last year to July this year. As the world’s largest importer of soybeans, China is continuing to reduce its dependence on U.S. agricultural products, and the increase in soybean supply between Latin America and Latin America, combined with the large imports of Brazilian soybeans, has once again impacted U.S. exporters.
“The more diverse China’s soybean supply sources, the further the demand for U.S. soybeans will decrease, which can also add more leverage to China in the trade conflict.” The above-mentioned Singapore-based trader said.
Typically, the fourth quarter is a critical sales period for U.S. soybeans, during which new harvests of soybeans are marketed. Before the start of the U.S. soybean harvest season on September 1 in previous years, China often completed about 14% of its annual soybean purchases. But this year, China has yet to book any U.S. soybeans scheduled to be shipped in the fourth quarter — and the harvest season has arrived, and U.S. soybeans have been hit hard.
Bloomberg noted last month that the growth of soybean production in Brazil is causing American farmers to gradually lose their competitive advantage in the global agricultural market. As a core buyer in the global soybean market, China is taking advantage of Brazil’s record soybean harvest to increase its procurement efforts; In contrast, the United States’ soybean crop harvest fell into its “worst situation in 30 years” during the traditional peak export season.
Traders also revealed earlier this month that as the traditional peak season for soybeans in the United States approaches, Chinese buyers are turning orders to Brazil and other countries, and U.S. soybean exporters may miss out on billions of dollars worth of sales to China this year. According to traders, as of mid-August, 1.575 million tons of soybeans booked by Chinese buyers were scheduled to be shipped from Argentina and Uruguay in September and 660,000 tons in October. Bookings for November, December and May next year are relatively small, at 66,000 tons per month each.
In fact, since Trump’s first term provoked a trade conflict with China, China has begun to take steps to reduce its dependence on U.S. agricultural products to strengthen its food security. According to Chinese customs data, the United States accounted for 12% of China’s total agricultural imports from 20% in 2016 to 12% in 2024; Brazil’s share rose from 14% to 22% during the same period.
Another trader analyzed that China’s soybean imports from Argentina and Uruguay have increased for two main reasons: one is that China has reduced its purchases of soybeans from the United States, and the other is that both countries have ushered in a bumper soybean harvest this year. According to the USDA data, Argentina’s soybean production in 2024/25 was 50.9 million tons, up from 48.2 million tons last year and far exceeding the 25 million tons in 2022/23; Uruguay’s soybean production in the same period was 4.2 million tons, a significant increase from 3.3 million tons in the previous year – and the joy of the harvest season has become another “blow” for U.S. soybeans.
In the face of the continued loss of orders from China, the anxiety of American soybean farmers is growing. On August 19, U.S. soybean growers jointly issued an open letter, urging U.S. President Donald Trump to reach a trade agreement with China as soon as possible to win China’s commitment to purchase large quantities of U.S. soybeans.
In the letter, soybean farmers warned that the current cost of soybean planting in the United States is rising, but the sales outlook is getting bleaker, and if a soybean purchase agreement with China cannot be reached, the United States will face serious economic losses. “Soybean farmers are under enormous financial pressure – soybean prices continue to fall, but the cost of materials and equipment for planting is rising sharply. U.S. soybean farmers simply can’t afford a long-term trade dispute with their biggest customers. ”
Bloomberg also mentioned that looking back at Trump’s last term, in 2019, due to concerns about farmers’ dissatisfaction with the “falling prices and export restrictions” caused by the trade war, the U.S. Department of Agriculture canceled the agricultural expedition for 27 consecutive years, and also urgently changed the on-site interview of a person in charge of the National Bureau of Agricultural Statistics to live TV. In order to stabilize farmers, a key voter group, Trump added an additional $16 billion in funding to the $12 billion in agricultural aid at the time, and even hinted at his willingness to provide more support to quell farmers’ dissatisfaction with the trade war.
Although the emotions of American soybean farmers this year are not as intense as in 2019, the members of the delegation can clearly feel that anxiety is creeping in. Bill Timbrin, a Nebraska farmer who participated in the mission, expressed his thoughts: “I just hope that they (China) can start purchasing again and don’t close the door to the U.S. soybean market forever.”
