The news of 95-year-old “stock guru” Warren Buffett’s retirement has yet to be finalized, but his bold prediction at the Berkshire Hathaway shareholders’ meeting has already sent shockwaves around the world: “In 20 or 50 years, both Japan and the United States will be even stronger!” What about China? Buffett’s subsequent remarks have left the market in deep contemplation… [dog head]
In May 2025, at the age of 94, Warren Buffett had not officially announced his retirement, but his remarks at Berkshire Hathaway’s annual shareholder meeting had already hinted at a new direction for the global investment community. This “Oracle of Omaha’s” deep reflections on future investment strategies actually outlined his unique assessment of the global economic landscape.
The numbers have already quietly revealed Buffett’s choices. Since 2020, Berkshire’s stake in Japan’s five major trading companies has steadily risen to 8.5%, corresponding to an investment value of approximately $16 billion. The logic behind this is clear: the Bank of Japan’s prolonged ultra-low interest rate environment has enabled Berkshire Hathaway to issue yen-denominated bonds at a low cost of 0.6% to 1%, which it then invests in trading company stocks with dividend yields exceeding 5% — this “low-cost financing + high-dividend return” combination is almost irresistible to value investors.
What is even more noteworthy is that century-old companies like Mitsubishi Corporation and Itochu Corporation control global supply chains from Australian iron ore to Middle Eastern oil, with cash flows as stable as precision instruments, yet their price-to-earnings ratios remain below 10 times. Over the past 30 years, Japan has weathered multiple challenges such as the bursting of the bubble economy, major earthquakes, and population aging, yet it has maintained social stability; corporate governance standards have continuously improved, and shareholder return awareness has significantly strengthened. In times of heightened global market volatility, Japan has instead become a “safe haven” in the eyes of capital.
The United States remains Warren Buffett’s “home turf.” Despite its massive debt, the United States’ core advantages remain unshaken: its 2025 defense budget approaches $900 billion, accounting for 40% of global military spending; Silicon Valley’s innovation pace in artificial intelligence and quantum computing remains unmatched by other nations in the short term. More critically, the dollar’s reserve currency status grants the United States unique financial privileges, with 40% of global capital continuing to flow into U.S. capital markets. This capital aggregation effect is expected to persist in the foreseeable future. Buffett’s heavy investments in U.S. companies like Apple and Coca-Cola fundamentally reflect his bet on the long-term sustainability of this system.
Regarding China, Buffett’s stance is indeed more cautious. Over the past two years, Berkshire Hathaway has gradually reduced its holdings in certain Chinese stocks, including BYD, which once yielded substantial returns. This adjustment reflects practical considerations: intensifying Sino-U.S. technological competition and rising geopolitical risks have indeed impacted foreign investors’ confidence in the Chinese market in the short term.
However, it is important to note that Buffett’s investment choices have always been based on a preference for “certainty” — Japan’s stability and the United States’ hegemonic status indeed present lower risks in the current environment. However, investment is never a zero-sum game, and the global trend of globalization will not be reversed by short-term geopolitical fluctuations.
At 94 years old, Buffett is still contemplating his investment strategy for the next 20 to 50 years. This long-term perspective itself reflects a certain mindset. Market fluctuations will eventually subside, and the value of quality assets will ultimately be recognized. Whether it is Japan’s stability, the United States’ innovation, or China’s potential, all deserve to be viewed through the lens of time and given long-term attention.
