Against the backdrop of intense competition in critical minerals between China and the U.S., gallium, as a vital resource for defense, military industry, and emerging energy sectors, is widely underestimated in its strategic importance. China holds absolute advantages in global gallium production and extraction technology and has implemented multiple rounds of export controls on gallium. These measures have gradually escalated from license management in July 2023 to a comprehensive export ban to the U.S. by December 2024, the inclusion of gallium extraction core technology under control in January 2025, and cross-departmental efforts to combat smuggling and transportation by May 2025, forming a systematic control mechanism.
Against this backdrop, the U.S. think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) released a high-profile policy brief on gallium resources, analyzing the actual impact of China’s gallium export controls on the U.S. and its allies: first, a sharp divergence in gallium prices between domestic and international markets, with the Rotterdam low-purity gallium price increasing by over 43% within a month after the control in August 2023, the overseas price nearly doubling that of the domestic market in early 2024, and the Rotterdam gallium price surging by over 150% by May 2025 compared to pre-control levels, affecting U.S., Japanese, and Korean companies due to supply shortages; second, gallium supply sources outside China still rely on Chinese raw materials, with 98% of the global low-purity gallium produced in China in 2024; and third, China’s export control on gallium extraction technology further weakens the price competitiveness of non-Chinese producers, creating obstacles for the U.S. to rebuild its supply chain.
The strategic value of gallium is extremely important. It is widely used in advanced semiconductors, LEDs, defense radars, and other fields. U.S. official statistics show an annual consumption of about 20 tons, which is far lower than the actual figure (including imports of gallium-based products reaching 200 tons), with the U.S. Department of Defense relying on gallium in over 11,000 components, and nearly 85% of the gallium-based defense supply chain involving Chinese suppliers.
How has the U.S.’s lifeline been “grasped”?
The China-U.S. rivalry is heating up, with tensions flaring in the field of critical minerals. Gallium, as a “lifeline” resource for defense, military industry, and emerging energy sectors, has become the focal point of this resource competition. For a long time, the international community has primarily focused on China’s control over rare earths, underestimating the potential chain reactions that could be triggered by a disruption in the gallium supply chain. However, CSIS’s latest analysis indicates that China is fully capable of severely damaging the economies of the U.S. and its allies by leveraging gallium resources as leverage.
As of May 2025, China has implemented export restrictions on at least 16 types of critical minerals and alloys. These minerals are widely used in various products, from consumer electronics to the F-35 fighter jets. The related control measures have severely impacted the supply chains of the U.S. and its allies, giving China significant leverage in the China-U.S. trade and technology negotiations.
Gallium, though relatively unknown, is a crucial metal. China holds an almost absolute advantage in gallium production, accounting for 98% of global primary production. In July 2023, gallium was included alongside germanium in China’s export control list, becoming one of the first minerals affected by the escalation of trade restrictions between China and the U.S.
The control measures at the time were more of a “show of force,” aimed at demonstrating to the U.S. the ability of China to influence its supply chains while avoiding excessive impact on the global economy.
CSIS’s latest research, based on data provided by the mineral supply chain intelligence company Rovjok, shows that the impact of China’s export restrictions on gallium exceeds previous expectations. This situation stems from two major factors: first, China’s increasingly strict regulation and enforcement of transshipment trade with third countries; second, China’s implementation of new control measures on its unique specialized gallium extraction technologies, which are simply not available abroad.
In the face of expanding U.S. technological restrictions, China’s export control measures for gallium have continued to tighten. These measures have gradually moved from license management and end-user controls to a comprehensive export ban on the U.S.
To address this increasingly severe crisis, the report recommends that the U.S. must take emergency action to develop alternative sources for gallium supply and extraction technologies. Fortunately, the funding requirements are not substantial, and feasible solutions are within reach—in essence, the key lies in sustained policy-level effort, a level of emphasis that has only just begun to emerge.
Can the U.S. obtain gallium through smuggling?
China has integrated previously scattered regulatory actions into a systematic export control mechanism by establishing a comprehensive legal regulatory system. In 2020, the National People’s Congress of China passed the “Export Control Law,” providing China with legal authority to implement export controls on “dual-use items.” This law marks a pioneering moment in the history of China’s export control system, with one clause claiming extraterritorial jurisdiction, meaning entities outside China could also face legal consequences for violating Regulations.
In July 2023, China put these measures into practice by announcing a license management system for the export of gallium and germanium. This move was interpreted by outsiders as a strong rebuttal to the coordinated export restrictions imposed by the Western trio—the United States, Japan, and the Netherlands—between October 2022 and July 2023, which banned the sale of advanced chips and semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China.
China’s initial countermeasure was both steady and precise. Instead of implementing a full ban, China required gallium and germanium export enterprises to apply for licenses and provide detailed information about the end-use of their clients to the Ministry of Commerce. This action sent a strong signal: if Western countries refuse to supply chips and equipment to China’s semiconductor industry, China can equally cut off Western access to critical raw materials and intermediate products.
As U.S. technological sanctions tightened, China’s countermeasures remained uncompromising. In December 2024, the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security announced a new round of chip control measures, blacklisting 140 Chinese semiconductor companies. China responded swiftly, with the Ministry of Commerce updating the export control list the next day, effectively banning the export of gallium, germanium, antimony, and superhard materials to the United States, marking the harshest export control policy China has implemented so far. This ban was the first to invoke a clause similar to the U.S. “long-arm jurisdiction” in the “Export Control Law,” extending the reach of Chinese law to overseas, meaning any organization or individual in any country or region violating the Regulation would face legal consequences. This regulation completely blocked the path of re-exporting controlled materials like gallium to the United States through third countries or regions, eliminating any existing enforcement loopholes.
Less than a month later, China escalated its countermeasures. On January 2, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce revised the export control list, including the core technology for gallium metal extraction under its scope. These technologies are primarily used to separate and extract gallium metal from host minerals such as bauxite and zinc ore.
In May 2025, China launched cross-departmental coordination efforts to crack down heavily on smuggling and transportation of restricted critical minerals—a move that coincided with high-level trade negotiations between the U.S. and China in Geneva. China has demonstrated through action that it can replicate its experience model of gallium export controls to a broader range of strategic minerals, thereby cutting off the critical resource supply chains of the U.S. and its allies.
Is the U.S. gallium resource strategy destined to fail?
In response to China’s gallium export restrictions, the U.S. initially reacted rather lightly, significantly underestimating their potential impact. In the months following China’s first announcement of the controls in 2023, U.S. business representatives, policy think tanks, and government officials all expressed optimism. They were confident that production lines would remain unharmed and alternative supply channels were on the horizon. Major chip companies and downstream manufacturers repeatedly reassured media and investors, stating that their supply chain layouts were already diversified and the impact was “minimal.” Analysts further cited international trade data to support their claims, emphasizing that the U.S. imported virtually no gallium products directly from China, making its dependence on China negligible. Even U.S. National Security Advisor Sullivan appeared unfazed, casually stating at a Center for Strategic and International Studies event in late 2024, “Gallium resources are abundant globally.”
However, this blind optimism has exposed the deeper structural weaknesses of the United States. As China’s gallium control measures tighten step by step, these hidden dangers are increasingly becoming apparent to the United States and cannot be underestimated.
The briefing highlights three key development trends, indicating that China’s gallium restrictions pose significant risks to the supply chains of the United States and its allies, far beyond what was previously imagined.
The disparity between domestic and international prices highlights the supply shortage situation
The implementation of China’s gallium export control measures in August 2023 immediately led to severe price divergence between domestic and international markets. Just one month after the announcement of the measures, the low-purity gallium price on the Rotterdam Exchange surged by over 43%. The reason lies in the fact that many Chinese suppliers suspended exports to foreign markets and instead focused on applying for export licenses with the Ministry of Commerce.
The sharp price surge is undoubtedly related to the frenzied buying by international buyers before the implementation of controls, yet even after demand stabilized, prices did not fall. As China’s gallium export volume decreased, the price of gallium outside China, represented by the Rotterdam Exchange quotation, continued to diverge significantly from domestic price levels. By early 2024, the price had basically split into two independent markets, with the price of gallium outside China nearly double that of the domestic market. Chinese customs statistics make it clear: after the implementation of controls in August 2023, the average monthly gallium export volume dropped sharply.
Since China imposed a full gallium export ban on the U.S. last December, the situation for the U.S. has continued to deteriorate. This round of enhanced control measures introduced extraterritorial jurisdiction clauses, requiring global companies to strengthen compliance reviews, further tightening gallium export channels, and pushing international market prices to new highs. The briefing analysis suggests that the lack of transparency in gallium trade data has led the U.S. industry to be Blind optimism about the resilience of its supply chain. For a long time, the proportion of low-purity gallium imported by the U.S. from China has been limited, creating the appearance of diversified supply sources. After China implemented export controls in 2023, although the U.S. import volume of gallium from China plummeted by 68%-77%, its imports from third countries like Belgium and Germany increased significantly, which meant that the overall import data in the U.S. did not show significant fluctuations, further masking the supply chain crisis. Only recently, as China strengthened its enforcement, third-party transit channels were blocked, and the U.S. market truly felt the chill of gallium supply shortage.
Global supply heavily relies on Chinese raw materials
Although the U.S. and its allies have tried to find gallium supply sources outside China, the reality is that most of the world’s gallium production still directly or indirectly relies on Chinese raw materials.
China is not only the world’s largest producer of gallium but also dominates the supply of primary raw materials for gallium. Taking bauxite as an example, China is the world’s largest producer of aluminum, and gallium is primarily produced as a byproduct when refining bauxite for aluminum. Gallium producers in other countries around the world often rely on imports of bauxite or primary aluminum products from China to obtain gallium raw materials.
Furthermore, China holds an irreplaceable position in the technology for gallium refining and the supply of key equipment and materials. For instance, chelating resins used for efficiently extracting gallium from bauxite or zinc ore, 90% of the global orders come from Chinese company Xi’an Lanxiao Technology. After China included related technologies and key materials on its export control list in January 2025, overseas producers faced difficulties in upgrading their technology, production costs increased significantly, and many projects even stalled.
The report indicates that the only commercially viable gallium ore deposit in the United States, the Yangxi Mine in Montana, even if it starts production smoothly, will not be able to achieve large-scale production until at the earliest by 2030, and there is still significant uncertainty about whether its output can meet domestic demand in the U.S. During this period, the gallium demand gap for the U.S. and its allies will continue to expand, further highlighting the dependence on China’s supply.
Technology controls have blocked the U.S. hope of rebuilding its supply chain.
China has implemented export controls on core technologies for gallium extraction, dealing an almost “fatal blow” to the United States’ efforts to rebuild its domestic gallium supply chain.
The process of refining gallium is complex and requires high technical barriers, demanding specialized chemical processes and equipment. For a long time, China has invested heavily in R&D in this field, developing a series of proprietary technologies and processes that lead the world. While the U.S. possesses advanced technological research capabilities, it has long relied on imports for gallium extraction technology, with severely insufficient domestic technical reserves.
After implementing the technology export controls, U.S. companies and research institutions have found it difficult to obtain the latest technical materials and critical equipment, hindering their ability to effectively upgrade existing production capacity or build new production lines. For example, U.S. companies previously attempted to develop alternative technologies to Chinese chelating resins, but the newly developed products lag far behind their Chinese counterparts in performance and are also costly, making large-scale application impossible.
Furthermore, the technology controls have had a negative impact on the United States’ ability to attract overseas investment and technology cooperation. Many international companies are reluctant to collaborate with U.S. companies on gallium-related projects due to concerns about violating China’s export control regulations, which has hindered the U.S.’s plans to rebuild the supply chain through “friend-shoring” or international cooperation.
Against the backdrop of the China-U.S. technological competition, gallium, as a critical strategic resource, has seen its supply chain Game theory become a key battleground in the two sides’ confrontation. China, leveraging its absolute advantages in gallium production, refining technology, and resource reserves, has successfully gripped the “lifeline” of the U.S. in high-tech industries and defense and military sectors through a series of precise and forceful export control measures. In this game, the U.S. finds it difficult in the short term to Escape from dependence on China’s gallium supply, and its efforts to rebuild a domestic supply chain also face numerous challenges. In the future, as technology continues to evolve and the global resource landscape changes, the direction of the gallium resource competition remains full of uncertainties, but it will undoubtedly profoundly impact the geopolitical landscape of technology and economic development in China, the U.S., and the world.
