I grew up in California, where September often brings the hottest weather of the year. This heat is a torment for everyone. I’ve always wondered why high school football teams insist on conducting preseason training when temperatures soar. But that’s just how it is in the Golden State – when school starts, so does the heat wave.
It’s early September now, and the weather in California has predictably heated up like clockwork. The high temperatures put a huge strain on the state’s power system as everyone cranks up their air conditioners to stay cool.
The main power dispatching agency in California is CAISO – the California Independent System Operator. Their job is to ensure a stable power supply across the state, but this year, the task is particularly challenging. In the 23 years they’ve been tracking, CAISO has only seen one day with peak power demand exceeding 50 gigawatts. Now, that peak is becoming a daily occurrence. CAISO reports that the current total installed capacity of the system is about 57 gigawatts, and today’s power demand is expected to reach 51 gigawatts, leaving almost no margin for error.
So, I think this is a good time to observe how California copes with the heat wave. California is often regarded as the most progressive state in the US, leading the way in the transition to cleaner energy sources – exactly the kind of energy system President Biden has been advocating for.
The all-day energy data released by CAISO reveals some interesting results.
In the early morning, the main players on the energy stage are renewable sources – wind and solar. This is in line with the energy plans of the Biden administration and California. From sunrise to just before noon, renewable energy accounts for more than 30% of the state’s power demand, which is no small feat. But as we’ll see, there are some limitations behind this.
After noon, as temperatures continue to rise, the energy landscape changes, and natural gas takes over as the leading power source. In short, California’s current power supply clearly relies on natural gas – it meets about half of the state’s energy needs both during the day and at night.
As the sun sets into the Pacific Ocean, the situation begins to shift again. At dusk, solar power generation drops sharply, and while the wind turbines keep spinning, the solar panels won’t start up again until the next morning. The renewable energy sources that shone in the morning have now dropped to about one-fifth of their peak output.
The batteries that have been charging during the day start to play a role. Over the next four hours, batteries contribute about one-tenth of the evening power, roughly half of what traditional nuclear and coal-fired power plants provide. Of course, nuclear and coal plants operate around the clock, while batteries have a maximum endurance of just over 4 to 6 hours.
But there’s something more notable. This is particularly evident in the dead of night, but looking at the full day’s data, it’s clear that it exists 24/7 – that is, “imported power”. California crosses state lines every day to purchase electricity from other states and suppliers. During the late night hours, nearly a quarter of California’s power comes from outside. So, it’s Nevada, Arizona, and even as far as Colorado that are keeping the lights on in California.
So, when I look at California’s power situation as a whole, it’s clear that natural gas is the backbone of the state’s power supply – it reliably meets more than half of California’s power needs.
In the morning, renewable energy takes center stage, with wind and solar power shining; but like Hollywood stars, they fade away when the curtain falls. At night, the contribution of renewable energy is almost negligible.
It’s also at night that the reality of California’s power situation emerges from the shadows: in this state known for its “green” image, imported power from other states becomes the second-largest source of energy. Where does this electricity come from? We are not entirely sure. Could it be nuclear energy? Or even (it sounds a bit shocking) coal? It’s quite possible, as some neighboring states do have such power plants.
As someone who once lived here, I have a deep affection for California. It is an extremely diverse state with excellent people and abundant resources.
It is called “the paradise of dreamers”, but it seems to lack a bit of discipline. The world needs dreamers, but it also needs doers who can “keep the lights on”.
I believe that CAISO released these data in the hope that the leadership in Sacramento would face up to the problem. To get out of this crisis, excellent management skills and financial wisdom are needed.
Anyone who does the analysis we just did will come to the same conclusion.
Economic News
Energy remains the top economic issue globally. Even the Large Hadron Collider at CERN is discussing suspending operations before the energy crisis ends. In Norway, the country’s top energy company predicts that global energy costs will rise by 1.5 trillion US dollars this year.
Overnight, China’s official data showed that the trade surplus in August decreased by about 20% compared to July. This may be related to the recent domestic COVID-19 lockdown measures and also affected by the slowdown in US imports.
Interestingly, China’s export data has become an indirect indicator of the US economy.
In the US, as the 30-year mortgage rate gradually approaches 6%, new mortgage applications have declined for the fourth consecutive week.
Later this morning, the US will release trade balance data. It is expected that the trade deficit with China will decline due to reduced business activities on both sides of the Pacific.
